Time Series Analysis of Vehicle Accidents in Umuahia (2001 — 2005), Abia State:- Emeruwa Confidence ,N
Abstract
This
Project was aimed at carrying out a time series analysis of vehicle accidents
in Abia State, a case study of Umuahia from 2001 to 2005. In this research
work, I identified the model and fitted the model. On the analysis, it was
observed that ACF (autocorrelation function) was differences once to obtain
stationarity and it cut-offs at first lag, that is MA(1) (moving average model
of order 1). And PAC.f (partial autocorrelation function) were cut-offs at autocorrelation
function) were cut-offs at lag 1 and 2, it suggested in autoregressive models
of order two, that is AR(2), but fewer lag cuts-ff at lower lags, so 1 chose
AR(0) or AR(1). By using Normality probability plots of the residuals of the
model, I observed that the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) gave a normal curve implying that
the model is fit for the data. The estimates ofthe model parameters given by
the MINITAB softwares are 0O = -0.0842 ft = 16.406 To test the forecasting
power ofthe fitted model, Error of forecast (f) were calculated for the model,
since it has a relatively minimum MSE, we may infer that an unbiased forecast
was provided by the model.
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EMERUWA, C (2024). Time Series Analysis of Vehicle Accidents in Umuahia (2001 — 2005), Abia State:- Emeruwa Confidence ,N. Repository.mouau.edu.ng: Retrieved Nov 23, 2024, from https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-vehicle-accidents-in-umuahia-2001-2005-abia-state-emeruwa-confidence-n-7-2
CONFIDENCE, EMERUWA. "Time Series Analysis of Vehicle Accidents in Umuahia (2001 — 2005), Abia State:- Emeruwa Confidence ,N" Repository.mouau.edu.ng. Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 25 Jun. 2024, https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-vehicle-accidents-in-umuahia-2001-2005-abia-state-emeruwa-confidence-n-7-2. Accessed 23 Nov. 2024.
CONFIDENCE, EMERUWA. "Time Series Analysis of Vehicle Accidents in Umuahia (2001 — 2005), Abia State:- Emeruwa Confidence ,N". Repository.mouau.edu.ng, Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 25 Jun. 2024. Web. 23 Nov. 2024. < https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-vehicle-accidents-in-umuahia-2001-2005-abia-state-emeruwa-confidence-n-7-2 >.
CONFIDENCE, EMERUWA. "Time Series Analysis of Vehicle Accidents in Umuahia (2001 — 2005), Abia State:- Emeruwa Confidence ,N" Repository.mouau.edu.ng (2024). Accessed 23 Nov. 2024. https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-vehicle-accidents-in-umuahia-2001-2005-abia-state-emeruwa-confidence-n-7-2