Time Series Analysis Of Reported Cases Of Tuberculosis In Abia State: A Case Study Of Abia State University Teaching Hospital, Aba
ABSTRACT
The issue of tuberculosis still
remains a burden to the World. Nigeria government has recorded very little
achievement in the treatment, prevention and management of this tuberculosis
because of inadequate knowledge of the trend pattern of TB. Thus the study was
to develop a stationary time series model suitable for tuberculosis data at
Abia State University Teaching Hospital, Aba. The data for this work were
secondary data collected from the Record's Department of Health Information
Management ABSUTH Aba and covers the period January 2003 to December 2011. Box
and Jenkins method of time series was employed as a tool for the analysis.
Analysis of the data showed a decreasing trend of tuberculosis in 4 the
hospital. Plots of autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation
functions of the differenced data were used to identify a stationary model for
the data i.e. ARIMA (0 1 2). MINITAB was used in the estimation of parameters
of the model. Diagnostics checking for model adequacy was done. Diagnostics
checking revealed that the residuals were white noise. The model was adequate.
Forecast values were also generated for 24 months. The forecast values included
12 months back- forecast for 2010 and 12 months forecast for 2011.
Recommendations were also made based on the findings
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IKENNA, C (2021). Time Series Analysis Of Reported Cases Of Tuberculosis In Abia State: A Case Study Of Abia State University Teaching Hospital, Aba. Repository.mouau.edu.ng: Retrieved Apr 26, 2024, from https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-reported-cases-of-tuberculosis-in-abia-state-a-case-study-of-abia-state-university-teaching-hospital-aba-7-2
CHARLES, IKENNA. "Time Series Analysis Of Reported Cases Of Tuberculosis In Abia State: A Case Study Of Abia State University Teaching Hospital, Aba" Repository.mouau.edu.ng. Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 29 Nov. 2021, https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-reported-cases-of-tuberculosis-in-abia-state-a-case-study-of-abia-state-university-teaching-hospital-aba-7-2. Accessed 26 Apr. 2024.
CHARLES, IKENNA. "Time Series Analysis Of Reported Cases Of Tuberculosis In Abia State: A Case Study Of Abia State University Teaching Hospital, Aba". Repository.mouau.edu.ng, Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 29 Nov. 2021. Web. 26 Apr. 2024. < https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-reported-cases-of-tuberculosis-in-abia-state-a-case-study-of-abia-state-university-teaching-hospital-aba-7-2 >.
CHARLES, IKENNA. "Time Series Analysis Of Reported Cases Of Tuberculosis In Abia State: A Case Study Of Abia State University Teaching Hospital, Aba" Repository.mouau.edu.ng (2021). Accessed 26 Apr. 2024. https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-reported-cases-of-tuberculosis-in-abia-state-a-case-study-of-abia-state-university-teaching-hospital-aba-7-2