Time Series Analysis Of Reported Cases Of Tuberculosis In Abia State: A Case Study Of Abia State University Teaching Hospital, Aba

ABSTRACT

The issue of tuberculosis still remains a burden to the World. Nigeria government has recorded very little achievement in the treatment, prevention and management of this tuberculosis because of inadequate knowledge of the trend pattern of TB. Thus the study was to develop a stationary time series model suitable for tuberculosis data at Abia State University Teaching Hospital, Aba. The data for this work were secondary data collected from the Record's Department of Health Information Management ABSUTH Aba and covers the period January 2003 to December 2011. Box and Jenkins method of time series was employed as a tool for the analysis. Analysis of the data showed a decreasing trend of tuberculosis in 4 the hospital. Plots of autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation functions of the differenced data were used to identify a stationary model for the data i.e. ARIMA (0 1 2). MINITAB was used in the estimation of parameters of the model. Diagnostics checking for model adequacy was done. Diagnostics checking revealed that the residuals were white noise. The model was adequate. Forecast values were also generated for 24 months. The forecast values included 12 months back- forecast for 2010 and 12 months forecast for 2011. Recommendations were also made based on the findings