ABSTRACT

The data used for this study was collected from the fire service headquarters, Port Harcourt over a period for nine years (2002-20 10). A time series analysis was carried out on the data by the use of MINITAB. The analysis indicated that tile time series plot was not stationary as was seen in Fig 1. And it was differenced in order to provide a better model capable of explaining tile properties of tile non-stationary series, as show in appendix D. The auto-correlation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation Function (PACF) graphs were also plotted. Integrated moving average of order one, One [IMA(1,1)] was suggested to be tile best fitted model for tile data. Base on this mode!, forecast were made. See appendix . Finally, recommendations and conclusions were made.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE

CERTIFICATION ii

DEDICATION iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv

TABLE OF CONTENTS vi

ABSTRACT viii

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 Introduction 1

1 .1 Statement of Problem 3

1.2 Objectives of the Study 3

1.3 Significance of the Study 4

1.4 Scope of Study S 4

1.5 Definition of Terms 5

CHAPTER TWO

O 2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW 7

CHAPTER THREE

3.1 METHODOLOGY: SOURCE OF DATA 9

3.1.1 Method of Analysis 9

3.1.2 Time Plot of the Series 10

3.1.3 Differencing 10

3.1.4 Autocorrelation Function (ACF) 10

3.1.5 Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) ii

3.1.6 Autoregressive (AR) Process 11

3.1.7 Moving Average (MA) Process 12

3.2 Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Process 12

3.2.1 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (AR1MA) 13

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0 DATA ANALYSIS 14

4.1 Time Plot of the Original Series Y 14

4.1.1 Autocorrelation Function (ACF) of Original Series Y1 16

4.1.2 Partial Autocorrelation Function of the Original Series Y 16

4.2 Time Plot of the Differenced Series, D1 17.

4.2.1 Autocorrelation Function (ACF) of the Differenced Series D1 18

4.2.2 Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) of the Differenced Series D119

4.3 Forecast Model . 19

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1 Summary 22

5.2 Recommendations 22

References

APPENDIX A

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX C.