Time Series Analysis Of Injured Persons In Road Accident In Abia State (2006-2010).
ABSTRACT
The desire to carry this research work was
aroused by the high rate of death and injuries resulting from road accident.
The objective of the research work is to determine whether the number of
injured persons in road accident follows a particular trend or is influenced by
season, to establish a model for it and to forcast future occurrence. A
secondary data was collected from the federal road safety commission Abia State
on the number of injured persons on monthly basis from 2006 to 2010. Box
jenkins approach was used in analysis using a statistical software called
menitab. ARIMA (111) was found to be the suitable model for the • series after
carrying out some test for confirmation. The equation of the model was
estimated to be Yt= -0.3l01y --'0:6176e..1. A 24 month forecast was made and it
was observed that the expected number of injured persons within the 24 months
will be between 16 and 19 persons per month. It was recommended among other
things, that the federal road safety commission should organize an awareness
program to educate drivers on driving rules to help reduce rate of road
accident in the state.
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OWERRE, S (2021). Time Series Analysis Of Injured Persons In Road Accident In Abia State (2006-2010).. Repository.mouau.edu.ng: Retrieved Nov 22, 2024, from https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-injured-persons-in-road-accident-in-abia-state-2006-2010-7-2
STANLEY, OWERRE. "Time Series Analysis Of Injured Persons In Road Accident In Abia State (2006-2010)." Repository.mouau.edu.ng. Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 11 Nov. 2021, https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-injured-persons-in-road-accident-in-abia-state-2006-2010-7-2. Accessed 22 Nov. 2024.
STANLEY, OWERRE. "Time Series Analysis Of Injured Persons In Road Accident In Abia State (2006-2010).". Repository.mouau.edu.ng, Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 11 Nov. 2021. Web. 22 Nov. 2024. < https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-injured-persons-in-road-accident-in-abia-state-2006-2010-7-2 >.
STANLEY, OWERRE. "Time Series Analysis Of Injured Persons In Road Accident In Abia State (2006-2010)." Repository.mouau.edu.ng (2021). Accessed 22 Nov. 2024. https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-of-injured-persons-in-road-accident-in-abia-state-2006-2010-7-2