ABSTRACT

This work has exclusively delved into the analysis of crude oil exportation in Nigeria using time series analysis as the pertinent analytical method. In the analysis, the magnitude of the efforts of various individual components of time series' were estimated. This components include; Trend (Tt), Seasonal Variation (St), Cyclical Components (Ct) and Irregular Components (It). Monthly exportation of crude oil in Nigeria for the period of five years (1997-2001) were observed. The effects of these components of time series were estimated. The trend components variations were estimated using graphical method, principle of least square method and moving average method. A cursory look on the graphical method shows a very slightly downward movement of the trend while the least square method, the trend line shows that crude oil exportation in Nigeria under the study years has a downward movement. This was due to the fact that Nigeria crude oil exports were extremely low in late 1997 to 1999. The trend line was estimated to be Xt = 178.36 - 0.36 yt. The seasonal components were estimated using the ratio to trend method. For example, the seasonal indices for the month of February shows that crude oil exportation in Nigeria was on the average -2.4 thousand barrel per day lower if there had been no seasonal variations. Finally, the crude oil exportation values for the year 2002 were predicted using additive model of time series.