ABSTRACT
This study examined the scenarios of Nigeria energy consumption per
capita using hybrid factor decomposition and system dynamics to aid in the
forecast of oil consumption per capita (OCPC) and related indices. The
objectives included the development of the hybrid methodology of factor
decomposition method modified by system dynamics and its application for
projecting Nigeria’s oil consumption per capita up to 2040. Three factors were used for the
factor decomposition comprising economic activity, technological progress, and
structure of energy consumption. The contribution of technological progress, economic
activity, and structure of energy consumption were investigated on Nigeria’s
OCPC using factor decomposition, while projections were made by carefully configuring
a causal loop diagram. The system dynamics model,
developed in VENSIM comprised stocks, flows, and converters. Ten stocks were
used in the architecture, and in this arrangement, the projected OCPC, OCPC at
base case, change in OCPC at time, T,
OCPC at time, T, alpha effect, beta
effect, gamma effect, alpha at time, T,
beta at time, T, and gamma at time, T were selected. Three flows were also
included in the model to represent different scenarios in values of alpha,
beta, and gamma. Also, nine converters, labelled as ‘variables’ in VENSIM
environment have been included in the model and included population, GDP,
energy consumption per oil consumption, OCPC (labelled as alpha), energy
consumption per capita (labelled as beta), ratio of oil consumption on general
energy consumption (labelled as gamma), change in alpha, change in beta, and
change in gamma, respectively. Using this arrangement, and three what-if
scenarios, projections of OCPC were made up to 2040. From the results of an
increasing OCPC growth in the first scenario, Nigeria’s OCPC would increase at 61.31 % per
year during 2018–2025, and 35.17 % between the period 2025 and 2028.The results
further indicates that, Nigeria’s OCPC can hit values of 978688 GJ, 2864742 GJ,
6626213 GJ and 8746523 in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively.
ADEGBOYEGA, D (2024). Scenarios of Energy Consumption per Capital in Nigeria Using Hybrid Factor Decomposition and System Dynamics:- Babalola, Adegboyega D. Repository.mouau.edu.ng: Retrieved Oct 12, 2024, from https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/scenarios-of-energy-consumption-per-capital-in-nigeria-using-hybrid-factor-decomposition-and-system-dynamics-babalola-adegboyega-d-7-2
DARE, ADEGBOYEGA. "Scenarios of Energy Consumption per Capital in Nigeria Using Hybrid Factor Decomposition and System Dynamics:- Babalola, Adegboyega D" Repository.mouau.edu.ng. Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 15 Apr. 2024, https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/scenarios-of-energy-consumption-per-capital-in-nigeria-using-hybrid-factor-decomposition-and-system-dynamics-babalola-adegboyega-d-7-2. Accessed 12 Oct. 2024.
DARE, ADEGBOYEGA. "Scenarios of Energy Consumption per Capital in Nigeria Using Hybrid Factor Decomposition and System Dynamics:- Babalola, Adegboyega D". Repository.mouau.edu.ng, Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 15 Apr. 2024. Web. 12 Oct. 2024. < https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/scenarios-of-energy-consumption-per-capital-in-nigeria-using-hybrid-factor-decomposition-and-system-dynamics-babalola-adegboyega-d-7-2 >.
DARE, ADEGBOYEGA. "Scenarios of Energy Consumption per Capital in Nigeria Using Hybrid Factor Decomposition and System Dynamics:- Babalola, Adegboyega D" Repository.mouau.edu.ng (2024). Accessed 12 Oct. 2024. https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/scenarios-of-energy-consumption-per-capital-in-nigeria-using-hybrid-factor-decomposition-and-system-dynamics-babalola-adegboyega-d-7-2