Population Projection Of Nigeria: A Comparison Of The Deterministic And Bayesian Models:- Agha, Christiana O.
ABSTRACT
In this work,
the Deterministic and Bayesian approaches to population projections were used
to project the population of Nigeria from 2008 to 2033. In the Deterministic
approach, assumptions of the trajectories of the three components of population
change were made based on expert opinion informed by the demographic history
and analysis of population policy of Nigeria. DemProj module in the Spectrum
Software was used to carry out the Population projection. In the Bayesian
approach, a random walk with drift term was used to model the phase II total
fertility rates (TFR) and life expectancy at birth in Nigeria. Markov chain
Monte Carlo was used to estimate the computational part of the Bayesian
projection model. The results indicate that the TFR ofNigeria will decrease
while the life expectancy at birth will improve over the projection period.
Also, the results of the Deterministic approach were more precise with respect
to the TFR, while life expectancy and projected population ofthe Bayesian
approach produced better results.
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AGHA, A (2023). Population Projection Of Nigeria: A Comparison Of The Deterministic And Bayesian Models:- Agha, Christiana O.. Repository.mouau.edu.ng: Retrieved May 08, 2024, from https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/population-projection-of-nigeria-a-comparison-of-the-deterministic-and-bayesian-models-agha-christiana-o-7-2
AGHA, AGHA. "Population Projection Of Nigeria: A Comparison Of The Deterministic And Bayesian Models:- Agha, Christiana O." Repository.mouau.edu.ng. Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 21 Nov. 2023, https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/population-projection-of-nigeria-a-comparison-of-the-deterministic-and-bayesian-models-agha-christiana-o-7-2. Accessed 08 May. 2024.
AGHA, AGHA. "Population Projection Of Nigeria: A Comparison Of The Deterministic And Bayesian Models:- Agha, Christiana O.". Repository.mouau.edu.ng, Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 21 Nov. 2023. Web. 08 May. 2024. < https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/population-projection-of-nigeria-a-comparison-of-the-deterministic-and-bayesian-models-agha-christiana-o-7-2 >.
AGHA, AGHA. "Population Projection Of Nigeria: A Comparison Of The Deterministic And Bayesian Models:- Agha, Christiana O." Repository.mouau.edu.ng (2023). Accessed 08 May. 2024. https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/population-projection-of-nigeria-a-comparison-of-the-deterministic-and-bayesian-models-agha-christiana-o-7-2