Population Projection Of Nigeria: A Comparison Of The Deterministic And Bayesian Models:- Agha, Christiana O.

AGHA | 100 pages (16033 words) | Theses
Statistics | Co Authors: CHRISTIANA ODINMA

ABSTRACT

In this work, the Deterministic and Bayesian approaches to population projections were used to project the population of Nigeria from 2008 to 2033. In the Deterministic approach, assumptions of the trajectories of the three components of population change were made based on expert opinion informed by the demographic history and analysis of population policy of Nigeria. DemProj module in the Spectrum Software was used to carry out the Population projection. In the Bayesian approach, a random walk with drift term was used to model the phase II total fertility rates (TFR) and life expectancy at birth in Nigeria. Markov chain Monte Carlo was used to estimate the computational part of the Bayesian projection model. The results indicate that the TFR ofNigeria will decrease while the life expectancy at birth will improve over the projection period. Also, the results of the Deterministic approach were more precise with respect to the TFR, while life expectancy and projected population ofthe Bayesian approach produced better results.

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APA

AGHA, A (2023). Population Projection Of Nigeria: A Comparison Of The Deterministic And Bayesian Models:- Agha, Christiana O.. Repository.mouau.edu.ng: Retrieved Feb 27, 2024, from https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/population-projection-of-nigeria-a-comparison-of-the-deterministic-and-bayesian-models-agha-christiana-o-7-2

MLA 8th

AGHA, AGHA. "Population Projection Of Nigeria: A Comparison Of The Deterministic And Bayesian Models:- Agha, Christiana O." Repository.mouau.edu.ng. Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 21 Nov. 2023, https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/population-projection-of-nigeria-a-comparison-of-the-deterministic-and-bayesian-models-agha-christiana-o-7-2. Accessed 27 Feb. 2024.

MLA7

AGHA, AGHA. "Population Projection Of Nigeria: A Comparison Of The Deterministic And Bayesian Models:- Agha, Christiana O.". Repository.mouau.edu.ng, Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 21 Nov. 2023. Web. 27 Feb. 2024. < https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/population-projection-of-nigeria-a-comparison-of-the-deterministic-and-bayesian-models-agha-christiana-o-7-2 >.

Chicago

AGHA, AGHA. "Population Projection Of Nigeria: A Comparison Of The Deterministic And Bayesian Models:- Agha, Christiana O." Repository.mouau.edu.ng (2023). Accessed 27 Feb. 2024. https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/population-projection-of-nigeria-a-comparison-of-the-deterministic-and-bayesian-models-agha-christiana-o-7-2

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