ABSTRACT

A time series is a set of data pertaining to the values of a variable at different times. Many variable have values that change with time. Typical time series are the population of Nigeria at each successive decennial census, daily company sales, monthly production statistics of a steel mill; annual rainfall in the gigantic plains; monthly traffic accident fatalities, daily closing price of shares on stock-market and electric demand. We may have also for example; record of deposits in savings Bank over a period of years, a record of patients blood pressure or pulse rate over a period of days. The figures relating to the changing values of a variable over a period of time that is the statistic series which tells us how data has behaving in the past is the Time series. It gives the value of the variable we are considering at various points in time-each month for the least five years, each quarter for the last four years. Yet when you look at a typical time series, the data fluctuates so much that it seems unlikely that it can help a great deal. For instance, the table below is a monthly series showing deposits in a federal savings Bank over a period of five years changing over time.

TABLE CONTENT

Page

Title

Certification ii

Dedication iii

Acknowledgement iv

Table of content v

List of illustration vi

Scientific abstracts vii

CHAPTER ONE:INTRODUCTION TO TIME SERIES

1.1 What is time series? I

1.2 Object of the work 3

1.3 Features and factors influencing a time series 5

1.4 Uses of the analysis of time series in

studying the effects of saving on individual and Bank. 8

CHAPTER TWO: ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES

2.1 Trend estimation by 11

Graphical method

Semi-average method

Moving average method

'Least square method

2:2 Calculation of trend using of Least square. 14

2:3 Trend removal 20

CHAPTER THREE: TIME SERIES- DESEASONALIZATION

AND FORECASTING COMPUTATION OF:

3:1 Seasonal variation 23

3:2 Deseasonlizating a time series (why deseasonalize) 26

3:3 C'nical fluctuation. 27

3:4 Irregular component 32

3:5 Forecasting 33

CHAPTER FOUR: EFFECTS OF SAVING ON BANK

4:1 Analysis of saving types/statelite Banking design 35

4:2 How savings affect growth of Bank 36

4:3 Effect of saving on Bank developmônt 37

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY

5:1 Summary of Results 39

5:2 Conclusion. 41

REFERENCES