ABSTRACT

The major purpose of this work, study is to construct a mathematical model which could he used to predict or forecast reliable and dependable future revenue Igure for Abia state lliis work intends to estimate and isolate the components of time series, Viz Trend, seasonal and irregular variations present in the date using the descriptive time series approach the data fur this work was collected from the Koard of Internal revenue, (1 lead quarters) Umuahia Abia State. The data covered the period o five years (1993-1998) the results of this work will help in future prediction forecast of internal revenue for the sate (i.e state in study). Ii could also he useful to lrms and business men in forecasting/predicting their future prohts/cuns when time series analysis is carried out based on their income and expenditure.

TABLE OF CONTENT

Title Page

Certification:

Dedication: lit.

Acknowledgement .. . . iv.

Abstract: . v.

Table of Content : vi

1,ist ol' Tables: vii

List of liure: viii

Chapter One Page

1.0. Introduction : . 1.

1 . I . Background of Study:

1 .2. Aims and Objectives

1.3. Literature Review:

Chapter Two

2.0 I )atc and Data Collection

Data Collection

2.2.0 Dc hinition o Concepts

2.2. 1 Revenue and internal Generated Revenue

2.2.2 I )elini tion 01' time series and its components

2.2.2. 1 Time series: Definition

2.2.2.2 Components o 'lime Series : Dc [mi lion

2.3 .0 Measurement o 'li•end

2.3.1 '[rend Removal

2.4.0 Measurement of seasonal Index

2.4. I Descasonalization of Data

2.5 Measurement of Cyclic irregular Components

$ 2.6 Measurement of cyclic Components

2.7 Measurement of Irregular Components