A Time Series Analysis Of Nigeria Oil Production (A Case Study Of Agbada 1 Flow Station Shell, Port-harcourt Rivers State)
ABSTRACT
The desire to carry out the research work was
motivated by the importance of oil production to Nigerians economy. Also to find
out the occurrence of scarcity, rise in prices of petroleum products in
Nigeria. The objective is to determine a model that will be suitable to predict
or forecast future production so that effective plan could be made. The data
for this work is secondary data collected from the records Department of Agbada
1 flow station shell, Port-Harcourt Rivers State and covers the period January
1999 to December 2008. Box and Jenkins method was used as a tool for the
analysis. Plots of Autocorrelation function and partial Autocorrelation
function of the differenced data were used to identify a stationary model for
the data i.e. ARIMA (3,1,1). MINITAB was used in the estimation of parameters
of the model. Diagnostic check and chi-square test for adequacy of the model
was done. A 24 month forecast was made and it was found that production for the
forecast period will lie between 17.0 and 18.0 barrels per month.
0.0
CLINTON, E (2021). A Time Series Analysis Of Nigeria Oil Production (A Case Study Of Agbada 1 Flow Station Shell, Port-harcourt Rivers State). Repository.mouau.edu.ng: Retrieved Nov 23, 2024, from https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/a-time-series-analysis-of-nigeria-oil-production-a-case-study-of-agbada-1-flow-station-shell-port-harcourt-rivers-state-7-2
EZENEKWE, CLINTON. "A Time Series Analysis Of Nigeria Oil Production (A Case Study Of Agbada 1 Flow Station Shell, Port-harcourt Rivers State)" Repository.mouau.edu.ng. Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 11 Aug. 2021, https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/a-time-series-analysis-of-nigeria-oil-production-a-case-study-of-agbada-1-flow-station-shell-port-harcourt-rivers-state-7-2. Accessed 23 Nov. 2024.
EZENEKWE, CLINTON. "A Time Series Analysis Of Nigeria Oil Production (A Case Study Of Agbada 1 Flow Station Shell, Port-harcourt Rivers State)". Repository.mouau.edu.ng, Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 11 Aug. 2021. Web. 23 Nov. 2024. < https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/a-time-series-analysis-of-nigeria-oil-production-a-case-study-of-agbada-1-flow-station-shell-port-harcourt-rivers-state-7-2 >.
EZENEKWE, CLINTON. "A Time Series Analysis Of Nigeria Oil Production (A Case Study Of Agbada 1 Flow Station Shell, Port-harcourt Rivers State)" Repository.mouau.edu.ng (2021). Accessed 23 Nov. 2024. https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/a-time-series-analysis-of-nigeria-oil-production-a-case-study-of-agbada-1-flow-station-shell-port-harcourt-rivers-state-7-2