Trend Analysis Of Crude Oil Exportation In Nigeria And Its Effect On Naira-Dollar Exchange Rate

ABSTRACT

This work studies the trend of crude oil exportation in I Nigeria, from January 1996 through December 2000, and how it affects the naira-dollar exchange rate. There are two basic objectives of this study: Firstly, to design a mathematical model that could be used to predict future crude oil exports in the next twelve-month period. Secondly, to Investigate the existence of a relationship between crude oll exports and the nalra-dollar exchange rate. A model will also be developed for estimating future exchange rates, should a relation exist. The methods of simple descriptive time series analysis (using the multiplicative model) and simple correlation analysis were employed. The former was used to analyse the exportation trend, while the later was used to Investigate Its relationship with the naira-dollar exchange rate. The time series analysis revealed a curvilinear trend In crude oil exports, and the absence of any seasonal variation. The correlation analysis, however, affirmed that no relationship exists between crude oil exports and exchange rates. The trend was used to forecast future export values for 2001.