Time Series Modeling Of Telecommunication Contribution To Nigeria Gross Domestic Product:- Ibeh Emeka F

ABSTRACT

 The world is moving into a global economy where telecommunication is playing a major role, hence increasing the need for researchers and economist to monitor the impact of telecommunication sector on the economy. This research models the contribution of telecommunication to the Nigeria Gross Domestic Product using time series analysis (BoxJenkins approach). The data collected from statistical bulletin (Quarterly data, 1981-2013) disclosed a jump at the fourth quarter of 2005. An appropriate model (SARIMA (1,1,2)1.1.2)) was estimated in the pre-intervention series using the Box-Jenkins approach of modeling time series. The model was used to estimate the intervention parameter and the nature of the intervention was estimated to be abrupt permanent and this was used to forecast the contribution of 2014 to 2016. From the study, it was revealed that the telecommunication sector have a positive impact on the Nigerian economy.