Time· Series Analysis On The Arrival Of Aircraft In Nigeria Airports (A Case Study Of Sam Mbakwe International Cargo Airport, Owerri.)

ABSTRACT

This study considered the arrival of aircraft movement in Nigeria airport using Sam Mbakwe International Cargo Airport as a case study. The ultimate objectives of the study is to develop an appropriate time series model which can be used to provide a reliable forecast and the of number of aircrafts that arrived at the airport. In order to meet the aforementioned objectives of the study, the monthly arrival of aircrafts (2004-2009) collected from department of operation and facilitation of Sam Mbakwe International Cargo Airport arc subjected to statistical analysis. The ACF decays exponentially and PACF have a significant cut-off at lag one. This suggested an Auto-regressive model of order one (ARIMA 1.0.0) was subsequently fitted following the residual analysis. Consequently, aircrafts movement of the months of the years 2009 and 20 IO were forecasted using the identified model.