Time Series Analysis Of The Revenue Allocation On The Basis Of Population (2005-2009)

Authors: Maduekwe Jacinta Blessing | Natural & Applied Sciences Mathematics Projects 63 pages 6,617 words

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ABSTRACT

The sole aim of this project work is to obtain a time series model that can predict a reliable estimate of future revenue allocation on basis of population. Box Jenkins iterative procedure was employed in modeling the series. The time plot, ACF and PACF of the original data showed evidence of trend pattern. The ACF and PACF of the Non-seasonal differencing showed that the data was not stationary. Also I fitted three models ARIMA (2,2,1), (2,1,0) and (1,1,0) and were subjected to various confirmatory procedures such as normal probability plots of the residual, in which I observed that ARIMA (0,1,1) proved adequate. Conclusion was drawn based on the fitted model and recommendation stated.

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