Time Series Analysis Of The Monthly Production Of Z-Purlin (A Case Study Of Iunt Industry, Onitsha)

ABSTRACT

Any business or economic action taken today is based on yesterday's plan and tomorrow's expectation. An organization must plan for the future in order to survive and grow. However, this project work was on the monthly production of z-purlin using JUNT industry Onitsha as a case study. The objectives of this project work were to construct a time series model and to forecast future quantities of z-purlin produced in the company for the year 2012. The monthly production data (2006 to 2010) was collected from the records in order to achieve the aims of this study. The time plot of the original series indicated a slight downward trend. The ACF and PACF of the original series showed a cut-off at lag I respectively, hence ARMA (1,1) model was fitted. The adequacy of the fitted model was proved with the help of the residual ACF and PACF, which showed that no pattern was left. However, a forecast of 2012 production year was done.