Time Series Analysis Of Solar Radiation And Temperature Of Abia State. A Case Study Of Umudike In Umuahia Abia State

ABSTRACT

Solar Radiation and Temperature data for 10 years (2001-2010) for Umudike in Umuahia Abia State were used in the analysis in order to detect the recent trend in both the solar radiation and temperature of Abia State. The major objective of this work is to construct suitable time series models, which could be used to predict a good, reliable, dependable estimate of future occurrence of the solar radiation and temperature and also to dictate and compare the relationship that exist within the solar radiation and temperature of Abia State. The data for this work is a secondary data from agro-metrology department of National Root Crops Research Institute Umudike. The data is presented in monthly basis and covers the period of January 2001 to December 2010. The box-Jenkins Iterative procedure is used to outline steps for model identification model fitting and diagnostic checking. The original data plot showed seasonal variation from the ordinary free hand of the data. Also from the ACF, & PACF plot non-stationary was seen in non constant location and scale of the plats for both the mean temperature and solar radiation, and also a slow sine-wave damped decay of the plots. These seasonal variation and non stationary that was seen lead to the differencing of services (first non seasonal differencing at lag 1 and first seasonal differencing at lag 12).