Time Series Analysis Of Quarterly Recorded Cases. Of Treated Hiv/ Aids Infected Patients In Upth, Rivers State. :- Oriala Ezekiel

ABSTRACT

This research work intended to construct a mathematical model 1 .. which could be used to forecast the future values of treated cases of HIV/ AIDS infected patients- in the University of Port-Harcourt Teaching Hospital (UPTH). To achieve the aforementioned objective, quarterly data collected from the University of Port-Harcourt ' Teaching Hospital from 2005 - 2009 were subjected to statistical i analysis. The results of all the tests carried out in this work showed j that the data were normally distributed, have constant variance ~ . ~ i and were not completely random. The plots of autocorrelation and j aria autocorrelation were used to analyse the data and it was I observed that they were stationary at ARIMA (1,0,0) which is the { adequate model. Finally, conclusions were drawn based on the ,l ~ 1 results of the study and the adequate model used to predict for ~ 4 1 future values was assessed using summary statistics like MSE. Also, recommendations were offered