Time Series Analysis Of Nigeria Expor1 To United States Of America (Jan 1996-Dec 2003).

ABSTRACT

A substantial source of foreign exchange earnings come from the export trade, this encouraged us to analyse the Nigeria export trade with U.S between 1996- 2003 using time series model with the global aim of constructing a mathematical model which could be used to predict reliable and dependable future forecast and isolation of time series components present in the data. The multiplicative model was used to carry out the analysis, the result showed that the Nigeria export trade with U.S increases by $19607 million per month with March having the highest seasonal influence and December the lowest, it was revealed that the export trade with U.S does not follow normal distribution while their yearly variances were not constant. The trend line was given as Xt 397.1416+3.9607Y1 ,where Y1is the time interval.