Time Series Analysis Of Fetility Rate: A Case Study Of The General Hospital Uyo Akwa Ibom

ABSTARCT

Fertility statistical is bye-products of a legal process of birth registration. When one talks about fertility one is talking about the actual reproductive performance of the population. The principal aims of this work is to fashion out a mathematical model that could be used to forecast dependable future level of birth in the state and also to evaluate the birth data, to see if they are normal distributed, has no constant variable, and not at random . This research work gives the student a complete fundamental knowledge necessary for more advance studies, practical knowledge and give a sufficient material for the reader to master the concept without much difficulty in time series. It helps in understanding the past behavior of a births and determining the rate of growth and the extent and direction of periodic fluctuations. Finally from the data provided we discovered that auto correlative function (PACF) is lay 2 which has a ARMA (2,1) and both are stationary.