Time Series Analysis Of External Reserves Of The Central Bank Of Nigeria (1991-2000)

ABSTRACT

This work has exclusively delved into tile analysis of external reserves of Central Bank of Nigeria using the time series Analysis. In the analysis the magnitude of the efforts of various individual components of time senes were estimate. This component inciudes Trend (TI), Seasonal variation (St), Cyclical components (Ct), and Irregular component (It). The monthly aiialysis of' External Reserves of Cl:N tbr I 0 years from (1991 -2000). 1'he effects of these components of time series were estimated. And the trend variation were estimated using graphical method. ihe principles of least square method and Ilioving average method. The trend line !br Gold were estimated to he, Y 19,828.04 + 1 348 x and also for foreign government securities were estimated as Y = 1 286 1 .98 ± 3246.75x Where x 1 20. hually the external reserves lot' 200 1 were predicted using the trend ands seasonal index values.