Time Series Analysis Of Church Revenue In Umuahia, Abia State (A Case Study Of Presbyterian Church Umuahia)

ABSTRACT

Church revenue data of the Presbyterian church Umuahia from 2001 -2006 was considered in this Study The ultimate aim is to construct a mathematical model that could be used to predict future value of'church income that could he used to predict uture 'aliies of CiIIJ rcli IIlCO IlIC. Time series analysis was used to breakdown the data into trend, seasonal, cyclical and irregular components. 'Two models were adopted, additive and multiplicative models. The result of'the analysis show that the revenue of the church is increasing. The seasonal variation happens to have its highest positive influence in the month of June, while it's lowest influence is the month January. The combined influences olthe cyclical and irregular components (detrended — deseasonalised series) were very much pronounced and tile forecast indicate that church revenue increased in tue year 2006.