Box Jenkins Approach To Time Series Analysis Of Savings And Fixed Deposit Data A Case Study Of Union Bank Of Nigeria Plc, Aba Main Branch.

ABSTRACT

The primary aim of the study is to construct a mathematical model. i.e Box-Jenkins model for the savings and fixed deposit account of union bank of Nigeria plc, which could be used to predict reliable and dependable future savings and fixed deposit values. The components of time series, trend, and seasonal effect were estimated and isolated. The study covered the period of 2002 — 2007. The data was collected from union bank of Nigeria plc. The result of the analysis was showed among others that; (a) The data was ..: from a normal population using chi square. (b) All the components of time series were presented in the data using the ARIMA (1,1,0) model. From the results it was suggested that bankers should give out huge amounts of loans only during the period of May to September and less amount during the period of October to April. It was concluded that within reduced incidence of distress banks, if bankers and relevant government agencies can adhere to the advice provided based on the forecast values of 2004, there will be an increase in fixed deposit and savings.