Analysis Of Treated Cases Of Malaria (2007- 2014) Using Box - Jenkins Approach To Time Series Analysis.

ABSTRACT

 This research work seeks to analyze Treated Cases of Malaria using Box-Jenkins Methodology. Monthly time series data on Treated Cases of Malaria covering the period January 2007 to December 2014 obtained from the medical record unit of General Hospital Owerri were used to fit the model. The time plot of the observed data showed that Treated Cases of Malaria is not stationary. This resulted to first order differencing to attain stationarity and remove trend. Seasonal ARIMA (3,1,3)(0,0,1 ) 12 was fitted to the Treated Cases of Malaria data,following careful examination of the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) of the series. It was observed that the ACF and PACF of the residuals from the fitted model have properties of a white noise process, indicating that the model has been properly identified. Twelve months forecast was made using the model.