A Time Series Analysis On The Number Of Births (A Case Study Of St. David Hospital Owerri, Imo State) (2001 - 2006)

ABSTRACT

The principal aim of this work is to fashion out a model that could be used to forecast dependable future level of births in the State and also to evaluate the birth data to see if they are normally distributed and have a constant variance. The survey covers all the registered births at the St. David hospital between Jan 2001-Dec 2006. The additive and multiplicative models of a time service were used to determine the trend. The findings showed that the number of births in St David hospital for the past six years is on the increase. The projected number of births follows the same trend. The number of births has been following a seasonal pattern. The forecasting of future births in the hospital was based on trend and the seasonal index. Consequent upon the results, I recommend that adequate birth control measures should be adopted to check over population.