A Time Series Analysis Of Reported Criminal Case In Abia State For The Period (2000-2004):- Ndubisi, Chinonye F.

ABSTRACT

In this work Time Scries Analysis on the reported criminal cases in Abia State (2000-2004) was carried out. The ultimate objective was to get a suitable modle which would be used to forecast crime in Nigeria. Specific objectives are to find trend and seasonality. In the result, we were able to find out that (1) Components on Time Scries were present in the data (2) the rate of crime is on the increase (3) the season that had the lowest crime Rate is the 3 quarter (July, Aug, Sept) and the season that had the highest crime rate was the 4lh quarter (Oct, Nov, Dec). From the results, we suggest that problem of combat of crime should go down to families, small firms, parasatals and government; this combat should be to have sanity in every walks of life. Also, that the law enforcement agencies should not be left at the mercy of the criminal minded people and the law enforcement agencies should be equipped with more sophisticated weapons which should be used to combat crime and not to be used for collecting bribe and stealing. With these and more recommendation made in this work, we hope that this mess which has eaten into the fabrics of our society will be eradicated.