A Time Series Analysis Of HIV/Aids Incidence In Federal Medical Centre, Umuahia, Abia Siate

ABSTRACT

 The data collected for this work is from Federal Medical Center Umuahia, it covers a period of 1 3 years with 1 56 data points. A time series Analysis of' UI V/AIDS incjdcnce in Federal Medical Center, Umuaiiia from 2002 201 Li. 'lie principal aim of this work is to find a suitable mathematical model that could be ascd to forecast a dependable future of tIIV patients in Federal Medical Center, Uirtwihia. The ineiliod of analysis of the data was time series analysis. M1N1TAB was cmployc(l to fit model that was capable of explaining some properties of the oraljua! data. 'l'he original data was made stationary. Therefore, based on the diagnostic tools the ACF, PACI7, the appropriate ARMA model was identified. Finally, based on the result of the an alysis conclusion was drawn and recommendation was made which can be of great benefits to government and health officers.