ABSTRACT

Over the decade, malaria disease has been the problem of human beings; it is a dreadful disease that has sent many souls to their untimely grave as a result of its rigorous effect. But eventually, as a result of application of scientific measures in human problems, the issue of malaria as a disease is no longer a big problem to man. Many drugs has been manufactured for the very purpose of detecting and treating the disease. The study will aim on analysis of treated cases of malaria collected from the General Hospital Owerri, for the period of 2004-2010. The statistical method that is to be used to analyze the data is Time Series Analysis by Box and Jenkins. A secondary data of the treated cases of malaria was collected from the general Hospital Owerri (2004-2010). After the analysis, the data was seasonal. Auto correlation function and partial-auto correlation function of the seasonal and non seasonal components were used to identify seasonal model for the data i.e. SARIMA (100) X (111) 12. MINITAB was used to estimate the parameters of the model developed. Diagnostics checking for model adequacy was carried out. Diagnostics checking revealed that the residual are white noise. The seasonal model was adequate. Forecast values were obtained for a period of 24 months. It included one year back forecast for year 2010. and one year forecast for 2011. After the analysis the following result was drawn, the disease occur most frequently between the months of May and July, which is during rainy season. But occurs least between December and January.