ABSTRACT
In this project work the temperature data for Umuahia South LGA inAbia State was analysed by the method of time series. Specifically, the method of simple descriptive time series analysis was employed while the multiplicative approach of separating the components was adopted. The method and approach helped us to construct a mathematical model that could be used in predicting future temperature values. The results of the test carried out in this work showed that all the four components of a time series were all present. The data maintained a constant trend for four years and thereafter slightly increased linearly for the remaining three years. It was also estimated that the product of cyclical and irregular components differs from one by less than 9%. Consequently CI was assumed to be unity. Finally, the trend and seasonal component were used in predicting the 1 999 temperature values. Conclusions were drawn based on the results of the study and recommendations were offered.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title
Dedication
Abstract
Cer
rtification
Acknowledgement
Table of
Contents
List of
tables and figures
Chapter
One
1.0
Introduction
1.1
Background of Study
1.2
Statement of problem
1 .3
Rationale of Study
1 .4
Objectives
1 .5
Scope of Study 4
1 .6
Literature Review 5
1 .7
Methodology 9
1 .8
Chapter Outline 13
1 .9
Definition of Concepts 14
Chapter
Two
2.0
Justification of some Assumptions 16
2.1 Test
for normality of the original data 16
2.2 Test
for Homogeneity of Variance 18
2.3 Test
for Randomness 20
Chapter
Three
3.0
Estimation and Isolation of the Component of a time series. 22
3.1
Trend 22
3.2
Seasonal Variations 2,5
3.3
Cyclical Variation 28
3.3.1
Test for Serial Correlation in the residue 28
3.4
Irregular Component. 31
3.4.1
Justification of the Assumption of randomness in the irregular
component.
31
3.4.2
Justification of assumption of Zero mean. 32
Chapter
Four
4.0
Forecasting, Summary Recommendations And Conclusion. 34
4.1
Forecasting 34
4.2
Summary 35
4.3
Recommendations 37
4.4
Conclusion 38
Bibliography 39
Appendices 41-50
AKALANU, C (2021). A Time Series Analysis Of Mean Temperature Of Umuahia South Local Government Area, Abia State. Repository.mouau.edu.ng: Retrieved Nov 21, 2024, from https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/a-time-series-analysis-of-mean-temperature-of-umuahia-south-local-government-area-abia-state-7-2
C., AKALANU. "A Time Series Analysis Of Mean Temperature Of Umuahia South Local Government Area, Abia State" Repository.mouau.edu.ng. Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 21 May. 2021, https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/a-time-series-analysis-of-mean-temperature-of-umuahia-south-local-government-area-abia-state-7-2. Accessed 21 Nov. 2024.
C., AKALANU. "A Time Series Analysis Of Mean Temperature Of Umuahia South Local Government Area, Abia State". Repository.mouau.edu.ng, Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 21 May. 2021. Web. 21 Nov. 2024. < https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/a-time-series-analysis-of-mean-temperature-of-umuahia-south-local-government-area-abia-state-7-2 >.
C., AKALANU. "A Time Series Analysis Of Mean Temperature Of Umuahia South Local Government Area, Abia State" Repository.mouau.edu.ng (2021). Accessed 21 Nov. 2024. https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/a-time-series-analysis-of-mean-temperature-of-umuahia-south-local-government-area-abia-state-7-2