Box And Jenkins Approach To Forecasting Quarterly Rates Of Inflation In Nigeria [1990 -2009]:- Ehighibe, Sampson E.

ABSTRACT

The main aim of this study is to construct a time series model that could be used to predict reliable future values ofrates of inflation in Nigeria. The data for this work of statistics 2009), statistical Bulletin and publication of central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and covers a period of 1990 to 2009. The data were collected in quarterly. Box and Jenkins method of analysis was used in the analysis of quarterly rates of inflation data. Autocorrelation function and partial Autocorrelation function of the original scries were used to obtain a time - series model (Autoregressive process of order one (AR(d )). Minitab statistical software parameters of the model developed. Diagnostics checking and (chi-square) test while noise. Hence, the model (AR(|>) was identified to be adequate and fitted. Forecasted values were generated for a period of eight (8) quarters, which indicates that the rates of inflation will continue to increase, mostly in the fourth quarters of against this ugly trend of inflation in our society were made.