Time Series Analysis On The Monthly Incidence Of Diabetes Mellitus In Abia State, Nigeria: A Case Study Of Federal Medical Centre, Umuahia (2003-- 2012) •
ABSTRACT
This research workconsidered the
Monthly Incidence of Diabetes Mcllitus in Abia State, Nigeria using Federal
Medical Centre, Umuahia as a case study. The ultimate objectiveof the study is
to construct an appropriate time series model which can be used to provide a
reliable forecast for the future. In order to meet the aforementioned objectives
of the study, the Monthly Incidence of Diabetes Mcllitus (2003-2012) collected
from the male and female units of Federal Medical Centre, Umuahia was subjected
to statistical analysis. The appropriate model for Diabetes mellitus was
achieved using the Box - Jenkins Approach (ARIMA) with the Auto Correlation
Function and Partial Auto-Correlation Function tools. The time plot of the
original data showed no seasonal variation and trend -pattern, thus the series
was confirmed to be stationary. The ACF and PACF cuts at lag one respectively,
thus the model fitted was ARIMA (1,0,1). No pattern was left after the plot of
the ACF and PACF of the residual from the model.Consequently, the monthly
incidence of diabetes mellitus was forecasted for one year and six months. This
showed that the model fitted was adequate.
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MERCY, O (2022). Time Series Analysis On The Monthly Incidence Of Diabetes Mellitus In Abia State, Nigeria: A Case Study Of Federal Medical Centre, Umuahia (2003-- 2012) •. Repository.mouau.edu.ng: Retrieved Nov 23, 2024, from https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-on-the-monthly-incidence-of-diabetes-mellitus-in-abia-state-nigeria-a-case-study-of-federal-medical-centre-umuahia-2003-2012-7-2
OZIOMA, MERCY. "Time Series Analysis On The Monthly Incidence Of Diabetes Mellitus In Abia State, Nigeria: A Case Study Of Federal Medical Centre, Umuahia (2003-- 2012) •" Repository.mouau.edu.ng. Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 23 Nov. 2022, https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-on-the-monthly-incidence-of-diabetes-mellitus-in-abia-state-nigeria-a-case-study-of-federal-medical-centre-umuahia-2003-2012-7-2. Accessed 23 Nov. 2024.
OZIOMA, MERCY. "Time Series Analysis On The Monthly Incidence Of Diabetes Mellitus In Abia State, Nigeria: A Case Study Of Federal Medical Centre, Umuahia (2003-- 2012) •". Repository.mouau.edu.ng, Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 23 Nov. 2022. Web. 23 Nov. 2024. < https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-on-the-monthly-incidence-of-diabetes-mellitus-in-abia-state-nigeria-a-case-study-of-federal-medical-centre-umuahia-2003-2012-7-2 >.
OZIOMA, MERCY. "Time Series Analysis On The Monthly Incidence Of Diabetes Mellitus In Abia State, Nigeria: A Case Study Of Federal Medical Centre, Umuahia (2003-- 2012) •" Repository.mouau.edu.ng (2022). Accessed 23 Nov. 2024. https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/time-series-analysis-on-the-monthly-incidence-of-diabetes-mellitus-in-abia-state-nigeria-a-case-study-of-federal-medical-centre-umuahia-2003-2012-7-2