ABSTRACT

The aim of the project work is to construct a mathematical model for e sales of Canesten Cream which could be used to predict reliable and depend;. :jle future sales value. As such this project work was intended to estimate and isolate the cc opponents of time series, trend, seasonal, cycle and irregular variation present using dc criptive time series approach. This estimation and isolation was based on the models of the origins data. The data was collected from Gemini Pharmaceutical Limited, Lagos d period under consideration (1996 —2001). The result of the project work showed amongst others that: I) All the components of the series were present in the data. ii) The mean of the sales data of Canesten Cream within the pen. '1 under consideration is 109.32 and standard deviation of 617181.657r. Based on the above result, it was suggested that the company shouk y to intensify their efforts towards the research and use of local raw materials for production of Canesten Cream so that the cost of production will go down their by using the price which automatically, means an increase in sales and revenue.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page Page

Dedication

Abstract

Certification

Acknowledgement

Table of Contents

List of tables & figure

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction

1.1 Background of Study

1.2 Statement of Problem

1.3 Rationale for Study

1.4 Aims and Objectives

1.5 Scope of Study

1.6 Literature Review

1.7 Methodology

1.8 Organisation-of-Work

1.9 Definition of Concepts

CHAPTER TWO

Data Evaluation

2.1 Test for Normality

2.2 Test for Constant Variances

CHAPTER THREE

Estimation and Isolation of The Time Series Components in the origir data Xt

3.1 Estimation and Isolation of Trend

3.2 Estimation and Isolation of Seasonal Components

3.3 Estimation of Cyclical Components

3.4 Irregular Component

3.4.1 Justification of the Assumption of Randomness of the irregula' omponent

3.4.2 Justification of the Assumption of Zero-mean

CHAPTER FOUR

Forecasting, Summary, Recommendation and Conclusion

4.1 Forecasting

4.2 Summary

4.3 Recommendation

4.4 Conclusion