ABSTRACT

The study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on non-oil export and output growth. We used time series data obtained from CBNfor a period of 38 years that is 1981 to 2018. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was used for the unit root test and Johansen’s cointegration test was also conducted to establish short and long run relationships between non-oil exports and independent variables. The result shows three co-integrating equations which establish the existence of long run relationship among the variables. Ordinary Least Square statistical technique was used to assess the determinants ofnon-oil export and output growth in Nigeria. The results shows that Exchange Rate (EXCH) has a positive and significant impact on non-oil export in Nigeria, the absolute value oft-statistics andprobability of8.281 and 0.000 is greater than 2.00 and less than 0.05 respectively; implies that the variable statistical significance at 5% significant error, therefore, we rejected the null hypothesis and concluded that exchange volatility has a significant impact on the non-oil export in Nigeria, also Exchange Rate (EXCHrate has a positive and significant impact on the gross domestic product in Nigeria, the absolute value oft-statistics and probability of 13.664 and 0.000 is greater than 2.00 and less than 0.05 respectively; implies that the variable statistical significance at 5% significant error, we also rejected the null hypothesis and concluded that exchange rate has a significant impact on the gross domestic product ofNigeria.. Following this, the study recommended among others that monetary authority should ensure exchange rate stability in order to stem inflationary tendencies in Nigeria which have adverse effect on the growth of non-oil export,also, the government should try to check the floating exchange rate usually characterized with unanticipated exchange rate volatility, which is subject to both exporter and importer, the exchange rate risk discourages themfrom engaging in international trade. And also, government should try also to desistfrom managingforeign exchange in line withforeign reserve position