Box-Jenkins Approach To Time Series Analysis Of Monthly Electricity Power Supply. (A Case Study Of Umuahia From 2003-2007)
ABSTRACT
In this project, a time series analysis of
monthly electricity power supply in Umuahia was done. To certify certain aims
and objectives which motivated this work, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was applied
to break down the data available so as to obtain the required result. The data
for this study is a secondary data. It was collected from distribution unit
power holding company of Nigeria (PHCN) Umuahia business unit. The data is
presented in monthly basis and covers the period of January 2003 to December
2007. Faced with the problem of obtaining future events as regards to this
work, a probability model was fitted using the statistical software application
package (MINITAB) hence, generating a forecast. The ARIMA model which generated
the forecast is ARIMA (1,1,0). This signified an autoregressive of order one.
Diagnostic checking was done using the plot of autoregressive (ACF) residual
and normal probability plot of the residual. This was done to ensure the
reliability of the fitted mode!. More so, recommendations were made both to
Government and to power holding Company of Nigeria (PI-ICN) towards enhancing
power supply.
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NZEADIBE, U (2021). Box-Jenkins Approach To Time Series Analysis Of Monthly Electricity Power Supply. (A Case Study Of Umuahia From 2003-2007) . Repository.mouau.edu.ng: Retrieved May 19, 2024, from https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/box-jenkins-approach-to-time-series-analysis-of-monthly-electricity-power-supply-a-case-study-of-umuahia-from-2003-2007-7-2
ULOAKU, NZEADIBE. "Box-Jenkins Approach To Time Series Analysis Of Monthly Electricity Power Supply. (A Case Study Of Umuahia From 2003-2007) " Repository.mouau.edu.ng. Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 14 Jul. 2021, https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/box-jenkins-approach-to-time-series-analysis-of-monthly-electricity-power-supply-a-case-study-of-umuahia-from-2003-2007-7-2. Accessed 19 May. 2024.
ULOAKU, NZEADIBE. "Box-Jenkins Approach To Time Series Analysis Of Monthly Electricity Power Supply. (A Case Study Of Umuahia From 2003-2007) ". Repository.mouau.edu.ng, Repository.mouau.edu.ng, 14 Jul. 2021. Web. 19 May. 2024. < https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/box-jenkins-approach-to-time-series-analysis-of-monthly-electricity-power-supply-a-case-study-of-umuahia-from-2003-2007-7-2 >.
ULOAKU, NZEADIBE. "Box-Jenkins Approach To Time Series Analysis Of Monthly Electricity Power Supply. (A Case Study Of Umuahia From 2003-2007) " Repository.mouau.edu.ng (2021). Accessed 19 May. 2024. https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/box-jenkins-approach-to-time-series-analysis-of-monthly-electricity-power-supply-a-case-study-of-umuahia-from-2003-2007-7-2