ABSTRACT

Palm oil is one the products of oil palm (Elaeis guinesis ) plant. It is a rich source of vitamins for the people of southern eastern Nigeria. The product was once a major foreign exchange earner for the nation and is still a good source of income especially for the people of Abia state. The availability and pricing of palm oil in Abia has been unstable. Thus a study was conducted using partial autocorrelation and Autocorrelations functions: The aims of the application of time series are the monthly interval of the data, to verify the time series model that influence changes in the relative price, if growth exist in the trend and to forecast future prices of palm oil. In comparing the forecasting value with the lower and upper limits, results show that the values estimated for the forecast falls within the limit values thus indicating that the model (ARIMA) fits the data used. This therefore suggests that monthly price of palm oil does not have seasonal effect. Some recommendations are preferred as follows: Government should increase production of the items by increasing number of palm production, private palm — farmers should he encouraged in all aspect which will help to reduce the increasing price.