Time Series Analysis On The Internally Generated Revenue, In Imo State Of Nigeria From 2001-2005

ABSTRACT

This study has mainly exposed the mathematical and statistical methods involved in time series analysis with particular reference to the revenue income of Imo State Nigeria from 2001 to 2005. In our tests, using chi-square statistics, I tested for equality of variances at 5% significance level and concluded that revenue collections are not equally collected and tested for independence at 1% significant level and concluded that revenue collections depends on time. We use the multiplicative method to analyze the data. During the course of this analysis, the four components of time series-were assumed and the decomposition method was applied to isolate the four components for separate analysis. The decomposition shows from the trend equation that collection has been increased by N2.O1 per month. The trend equation is given by t=33.27+2.01(t),t=12, ...,60. Cyclical influences was also detected. Revenue collection is the highest during the eleventh month, the seventh is the least, the irregular components as we expected are randomly distributed. The data was also depersonalized to remove the effect of the seasonal variation. Forecast was made for 2006. Finally, useful recommendations were made to faster better revenue collections.