Time Series Analysis Of Umudike Monthly Rainfall In Abia State (2003-2007)

Authors: EZUMEZU VICTOR-BEN | Computer Science Projects 72 pages 10,023 words

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ABSTRACT

The aim of this project is to construct a mathematical model for the rainfall data which could be used to predict reliable and dependable future rainfall values. Specifically, it was intended to estimate and isolate the components of time series data namely: Trend, Seasonal variation and Irregular movement present in the data using the multiplicative model time series analysis. Forecast for rainfall was made and the error term was calculated for the original and the transformed data. The model based on original data appeared to have performed better than that based on the transformed data in the forecasting.

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