A Time Series Analysis Of The Monthly Sales Of Corn Grits (A Case Study Of Paulson Nigeria Limited, Imo State)

ABSTRCT

The  main objective of this project Work is to introduce a method of analysis that will be used to construct a mathematical model. The box-Jenkins methodology vas used in this study which applies ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) to find the best fit for the time series observations in order to make reliable forecasts. However, SARIMA (1 1 2) (2 I 2) was selected as the appropriate mathematical model for the series and the required model are given ns: Y=O.881 + O.8904ef _12+ O.9719e_21. + O.1263e_T_₁₂—4185e_t _2+ - 0.5829_Y_₁₃ + 12 — 0.2O51_Y-₁₂+ ftS829Y_13+ 0.2051_Y _2 1-- 0.85O1_Y_24+ 0.8501Y 36. The box-pierce or Q-statistic.:, proposed b lox and Pierce (1970), was used to check the residuals for evidence of auto correlation.