A Time Series Analysis Of Nigeria Oil Production (A Case Study Of Agbada 1 Flow Station Shell, Port-harcourt Rivers State)

ABSTRACT

 The desire to carry out the research work was motivated by the importance of oil production to Nigerians economy. Also to find out the occurrence of scarcity, rise in prices of petroleum products in Nigeria. The objective is to determine a model that will be suitable to predict or forecast future production so that effective plan could be made. The data for this work is secondary data collected from the records Department of Agbada 1 flow station shell, Port-Harcourt Rivers State and covers the period January 1999 to December 2008. Box and Jenkins method was used as a tool for the analysis. Plots of Autocorrelation function and partial Autocorrelation function of the differenced data were used to identify a stationary model for the data i.e. ARIMA (3,1,1). MINITAB was used in the estimation of parameters of the model. Diagnostic check and chi-square test for adequacy of the model was done. A 24 month forecast was made and it was found that production for the forecast period will lie between 17.0 and 18.0 barrels per month.