A Time Series Analysis Of Birth Rate (A Case Study Of Federal Medical Centre, Umuahia, Abia State)

ABSTRACT

The principal aim of this work is to arrive at a mathematical model that can be used to forecast dependable future level of births in the state and also to evaluate the birth data to see if they are normally distributed and have a constant variance. The survey covers all the registered births at federal medical centre, umuahia, Abia state between January 2003 to December 2007. To attain stationary, operations such as auto correlation, partial auto correlation and differencing were conducted. The result of the analysis showed that;  On monthly average, the birth rate of Abia state within the period under consideration is 34 with a standard deviation of 11.73  Stationary was attained by differencing transformation at lag 1 Consequent upon the result, I prefer these recommendations. Health administrators and health organisations should pay more attention to the state by mobilizing more resources to enlighten the general public on the dangers of over-population and also data should be collected from other hospitals in the state so as to be able to compare the results gotten from their analysis for further and better explainable and understandable results. Adequate birth control measures should be adopted to minimize and monitor the population.